From Horse-Drawn Carriages to Hyperloops: The Unstoppable Pace of Human Progress

Three years ago, I came across a captivating post on Wait But Why that explored the rapid acceleration of human progress throughout history. The insights and intriguing examples presented in the article struck a chord with me and played a significant role in my decision to leave my career path in Venture Capital to fully immerse myself in the world of software, learning to code and building innovative solutions to automate mundane day-to-day stuff & solve real world problems.

Now, as AI and technologies like GPT4 continue to rise and reshape our lives, I am more convinced than ever that I made the right choice. I wanted to share my thoughts and experiences with you, so I decided to do a write-up on this topic to do a summary on the very post that changed the trajectory of my life.

And if you’re in the journey of exploring your own path, I hope this helps.

Join me as we delve into the incredible journey of human progress and how it has influenced not only my life choices but also the world around us.

A Leap into the Present: The World Today

The world has come a long way since the year 1750. Back in those days, long-distance communication was limited to yelling, signal fires, or firing a cannon, while transportation relied on horses and carriages, which required hay as fuel. Now, imagine bringing someone from 1750 to our world today. They would be astonished by the advanced technology and conveniences we have, such as smartphones that allow us to communicate with anyone around the globe, the internet that offers endless information at our fingertips, and space exploration, which has resulted in missions to Mars and humans landing on the Moon.

Back in 1750, people used to rely on candles, oil lamps, or fireplaces to light their homes. Today, we have access to a wide range of lighting solutions, from traditional light bulbs to energy-efficient LEDs that can be controlled by a simple voice command or a smartphone app. This has not only made our lives more comfortable but also contributed to reducing energy consumption and carbon emissions.

photo from waitbutwhy.com

From 1500 to 1750: Incremental Progress

According to Tim Urban from Wait But Why, if we took someone from 1750 and showed them around the world today, they would be amazed and might even DIE FROM SHOCK! This is because the changes from 1750 to now have been so great that they would find it almost incomprehensible. However, if we took someone from 1500 to 1750 and showed them around, they would be surprised but not as much because the changes were not as significant. In fact, to truly shock someone from the past, we would have to go back even further to a time before civilization began.

The Exponential Leap: Why the Progress from 1750 to Present Day Trumps 1500 to 1750 in Human History

In order for someone to be transported into the future and die from the level of shock they’d experience, they have to go enough years ahead that a “die level of progress,” or a Die Progress Unit (DPU) has been achieved. So a DPU took over 100,000 years in hunter-gatherer times, but at the post-Agricultural Revolution rate, it only took about 12,000 years. The post-Industrial Revolution world has moved so quickly that a 1750 person only needs to go forward a couple hundred years for a DPU to have happened.

The implications of this level of progress and the pace at which it’s happening are truly mind-boggling. It’s hard to even imagine what the world will look like in just a few decades, let alone centuries or millennia. The speed and scope of change we’re experiencing will undoubtedly have major societal, economic, and political impacts that we can’t even begin to fully comprehend. As we continue to develop AI and other advanced technologies, it’s essential that we approach them with caution and careful consideration to ensure that they’re used ethically and responsibly for the betterment of humanity.

Some examples of how the progress from 1750 to the present day is more significant than the progress from 1500 to 1750:

1. Communication: In the 18th century, communication was limited to letters, telegrams, and in-person meetings. These forms of communication were slow and often unreliable, with messages taking days or weeks to reach their destination. Today, we can communicate instantly with anyone in the world through mobile devices, email, video conferencing, and social media.
2. Transportation: In the 18th century, transportation was limited to horse-drawn carriages, ships, and foot travel. Travel was slow and often dangerous, with journeys taking weeks or months to complete. Today, we can travel by car, airplane, or high-speed train, allowing us to traverse vast distances in a matter of hours.
3. Healthcare: In the 18th century, healthcare was limited to basic remedies and treatments, with little understanding of the causes of diseases. Medical procedures were often painful and invasive, and many illnesses were fatal. Today, we have access to advanced medical technologies, vaccines, and antibiotics, which have transformed the practice of medicine and extended our life expectancy.
4. Entertainment: In the 18th century, entertainment was limited to live performances, books, and games. These forms of entertainment were often expensive and limited in availability. Today, we have access to a vast array of entertainment options, including movies, television, video games, and online streaming services.
5. Education: In the 18th century, education was limited to wealthy individuals and formal institutions. Many people were unable to read or write, and access to educational resources was limited. Today, we have access to online courses, educational videos, and a wealth of information on any topic through the internet.

Some examples of the tech that made the above possible:

1. Mobile Health Apps: In the 18th century, health management was limited to basic remedies and treatments, with little access to information and resources. However, with the advent of mobile health apps, we can now track our fitness, monitor our heart rate, and receive reminders to take medication, taking a more proactive role in our health management.
2. Online Shopping: In the 18th century, purchasing goods often involved traveling to a physical store, which could be time-consuming and limited to the products available in one’s local area. However, with the rise of e-commerce and online shopping, we can now order products from around the world with just a few clicks, and have them delivered right to our doorstep.
3. Video Conferencing: In the 18th century, long-distance communication was limited to slow and unreliable mail services, with physical travel required for face-to-face meetings. However, with video conferencing technology, we can now communicate face-to-face with people in different parts of the world, without the need for physical travel.
4. Cloud Computing: In the 18th century, data storage and access were limited to physical documents and books, which could be lost or damaged over time. However, with cloud computing technology, we can now store and access our data from anywhere in the world, with real-time collaboration and sharing capabilities.
5. Virtual Reality: In the 18th century, immersive experiences were limited to physical environments and imagination. However, with virtual reality technology, we can now immerse ourselves in virtual worlds, creating interactive and engaging experiences for gaming, education, and even therapy.

The Law of Accelerating Returns: Progress at Warp Speed

The Law of Accelerating Returns is a theory that suggests technological progress is not linear but exponential. The theory was popularized by Ray Kurzweil, a futurist and inventor, who argued that technological progress is accelerating at an unprecedented rate, and that we are entering a period of radical transformation.

According to Kurzweil, the reason why we see technological progress as linear is that we tend to think of it in terms of our own experience. But in reality, technological progress is accelerating at an exponential rate, meaning that the rate of progress is increasing over time. This means that the amount of progress we will experience in the next 10 years will be greater than the progress we have experienced in the last 100 years.

One example of the Law of Accelerating Returns in action is the development of computers. In 1971, Intel released the first microprocessor, the Intel 4004. It had 2,300 transistors and could perform around 60,000 operations per second. Today, the latest microprocessors have billions of transistors and can perform trillions of operations per second. This is because the number of transistors on a microprocessor has been doubling roughly every 18 months, a phenomenon known as Moore’s Law.

Another example of the Law of Accelerating Returns is in the field of genetics. The Human Genome Project, which was completed in 2003, took 13 years and cost $2.7 billion. Today, it is possible to sequence a genome in a matter of hours for a few thousand dollars. This is because the cost of sequencing has been decreasing exponentially, making it more accessible and affordable.

Overall, the Law of Accelerating Returns suggests that we are entering a period of rapid technological progress, where the pace of change is accelerating at an unprecedented rate. It remains to be seen what the implications of this will be for society and the world, but it is clear that we are on the cusp of a technological revolution that will transform the way we live, work, and interact with each other.

photo from waitbutwhy.com

Linear vs. Exponential Thinking: Why We Struggle to Predict the Future

However, people are often skeptical of such predictions because they think linearly instead of exponentially. We base our predictions on past progress and fail to account for the exponential increase in progress that comes with technological advancements. Additionally, our own experiences and imaginations can limit our ability to predict future progress accurately. For example, few people in the early 20th century could have predicted the widespread use of personal computers and the internet just a few decades later.

Let’s say you have a stack of one million dollar bills. That stack would be about 4 feet high. Now, imagine you have a stack of one billion dollar bills. That stack would be about 364 feet high! That’s taller than the Statue of Liberty!

This example shows just how big of a difference there is between a million and a billion, even though they are both very large numbers. It highlights the importance of understanding exponential growth and the difficulty we often have in comprehending it.

Looking Ahead: The Revolutionary Future

In conclusion, the progress made in the last few hundred years is astounding, but it pales in comparison to the progress that will be made in the coming decades. As we continue to advance technologically, progress will move at an increasingly fast pace. The future will be full of revolutionary advancements that will drastically alter our way of life, such as self-driving cars, advanced artificial intelligence, and potential colonization of other planets. By understanding the concept of accelerating returns, we can better appreciate the immense potential for change in the near future and beyond.

The Call for a Pause: AI Leaders Raise Concerns

In light of the incredible advancements in artificial intelligence, it’s no surprise that the potential consequences of these powerful technologies have captured the attention of industry leaders. Just yesterday, Tesla CEO Elon Musk, Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak, and several other prominent AI figures have called for a six-month pause on the training of artificial intelligence systems more powerful than GPT-4. This collective push for a temporary halt on AI development highlights the growing concern about the implications of rapidly advancing AI technologies.

The Alarming Potential of Advanced AI

The call for a pause is particularly alarming because it underscores the potential risks associated with unchecked AI development. As AI systems become more powerful and capable, they also become more difficult to control and predict. The inherent complexity of these advanced AI models, combined with their capacity to learn and adapt, raises concerns about unintended consequences, ethical dilemmas, and the potential for misuse by malicious actors.

Moreover, the prospect of advanced AI systems making decisions without human oversight or intervention raises questions about accountability and responsibility. As we continue to push the boundaries of AI capabilities, the potential for AI to affect our daily lives, economies, and global dynamics becomes even more significant.

Striking a Balance: Responsible AI Development

The call for a pause on AI development serves as a reminder of the importance of responsible research and development in the field of artificial intelligence. While the incredible pace of human progress and the Law of Accelerating Returns have led to remarkable advancements in AI, we must also acknowledge the potential risks and challenges that come with these powerful technologies.

By advocating for a temporary halt in AI development, industry leaders like Elon Musk and Steve Wozniak emphasize the need for a more measured and cautious approach. This call to action encourages the AI community to collaborate, establish guidelines, and consider the ethical implications of their work, ensuring that the progress we make is not only rapid but also responsible and sustainable.

Wrapping Up

I firmly believe that we are currently at an inflection point in the world of technology, and my bullish stance on software and AI remains unwavering.

Life as we know it is poised to undergo a tremendous transformation, and the conventional rules we've followed may soon be rendered obsolete. For anyone considering a foray into this rapidly evolving landscape, there has never been a more exciting time to embrace change and seize the opportunities that lie ahead.

As we navigate the uncharted territory of AI and other emerging technologies, let us be mindful of the challenges, while also remaining optimistic about the incredible potential to reshape our lives and society for the better.

The future is here, and it is ours to shape!

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Come join us at Sigma School where we strive everyday to build more techies for the world, work on amazing software projects and innovate to make the world a better place.

Connect with me: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dericyeejiyong/